A future Roadmap for a Growing Nation

 

The assumption that India will become a global-power has a long history, with its own set of supporters and critics. The endowment of having the second-highest population in the world, a strategically positioned geography, growing economic might and its democratic credentials, all have been helping India, since its Independence, to ascend as a legitimate actor in the International political realm. The LPG reforms in the first half of the 1990s helped India to assert itself as the fastest-growing democracy in the world, and its performance in the backdrop of the financial crisis of 2008-09, getting out unscathed, compelled the IMF to praise India’s resilience in the tumultuous times. While the world has not stopped to woo over India’s indicators and eulogize it as the major-power in the making, four trends have emerged which are a cause of concern and needs continuous pondering to help us discern that, Is India on the path to becoming a major power or do we need a recalibration of our existing strategies?

First, the biggest strength or say the biggest legitimizing force courting India’s ascendence in the world has been its economic shine, which has led the Ex-PM of Singapore Goh Chok Tong to regard India as the next China to be able to drive the world economy for the next 10 years. Since 2018, that rising boat seems to be sinking and its recent stint with the Pandemic has exacerbated this problem. While the IMF has projected that India will be one of the fastest-growing economies in the post-pandemic world, that certainly has not ameliorated the structural and regional challenges it faces today. On top of it, the protectionist turn of the India economy with its “Aatmanirbhar-Bharat Initiative”, is a cause of concern, which find its parallels in India’s stance from the 1950s to late 1980s and instead of starting a virtuous cycle it could lead to a vicious cycle for the growth trajectory of India unless compensated with global ambitions.
 
Second, the changing global scenario in which India is entangled with a world being pushed on the brink of Cold war 2.0 between the US and China has compelled India to take sides. Unlike the earlier version between the US and USSR, India is not finding it suitable to have a Non-Alignment2.0 Policy, given the growing belligerence of China over the territorial borders of India. The new world order, as it has been speculated, will see three main players emerging- India, China and the US at the helm of international politics, which would bring a new set of opportunities and challenges for India. The US’s acceptance of India as a comprehensive partner and a bi-partisan consensus between India and the US over the china challenge (revival of Quad, espousing the idea of free and open Indo-Pacific and burgeoning defence ties), signals a point of no-return for India. This compelling force of diplomacy will disrupt the globalization principle of the present economic order in the times to come when India needs it the most.
 
Third, the challenge presented to the notion of India being a regional power by the growing Chinese overreach in various quarters from the South-Asian region to ASEAN and from the Middle-east to the Indian Ocean region is compelling India to balance-out various dimensions all at once. Adding to that is the long concern of a two-front war becoming more viable in the present context. The problem of China cajoling Indian neighbouring countries through its deep-pockets and its economic threat to Indian partners (Japan, Australia, Vietnam etc.) while presenting another set of challenges through border skirmishes at the LAC, has destabilized Indian aspirations in the region. This has pushed India to defenestrate the existing institutions and look for new-ones for the sustenance of its strategic and economic interests (Quad, India-Australia-Japan tri-lateral partnership, D-10, are some cases in point).
 

Finally, and the most concerning one is the deterioration of the democratic credentials of India which has raised many eyebrows. The political radicalization, linking politics with self-interest rather than social-interest, and increasing religious turn of the Indian political-economy has divided the Indian society, which, in turn, is constraining Indian democracy to uplift itself to its true potential of being a vibrant and representative democracy. This scenario is happening at a time when India has faced challenges throughout most of its history and still been regarded as the most unusual of-sorts democracy, that has sustained and thrived in rather strange conditions. This leads to undermining the democratic ethos of India of being a free and open-society to thrive and grow- individually as well as collectively. Certainly, the issue of Kashmir and growing dissent against the government of the day has nudged the political commentators outside the Indian borders over regarding India as a “sliding democracy”.  Here two democracy reports by America’s Freedom House and Sweden’s V-Dem Institute, come in handy. Both of them have presented their reservations over deteriorating conditions in the political and socio-economic domain of India. On top of that, the Press Freedom Index report 2020 published by Paris based Reporters without borders (RWB), has placed India at 142nd position, which has attracted criticism from various quarters in India. 

One area where India debilitates is no to minimal connection between these three core tenets of the country. The disjoint at any level has a disguised spill-over effect on the other, which leads to a hasty and unreasonable decision, further dissecting from to-be followed path and deteriorating the conditions

 With all the ambivalence, one thing which comes out certain is India needs recalibration and this needs to be done on multiple levels from politics to economy to diplomacy. One area where India debilitates is no to minimal connection between these three core tenets of the country. The disjoint at any level has a disguised spill-over effect on the other, which leads to a hasty and unreasonable decision, further dissecting from to-be followed path and deteriorating the conditions. The case in point is the present condition along the LAC. Exactly six years after the Chinese had pursued their open-door policy in 1985, we opened up our economy for the better, in 1991. While the Chinese pursued concomitant military and economic progression, while having political support for both, India, on the other hand, focused on economic progression while neglecting the military stagnation. The outcome- the Indian economy is a fifth of the Chinese economy with a considerable gap in hard-power (Military). Further, the lack of willingness from the political domain of India to consider and acknowledge the burgeoning gap between India and China has led us to take hasty decisions (banning Chinese social media apps and import substitution measures) when push has come to the shove. This lack of horizontal knitting is what has led us to face the present situation on various fronts. 

The unusual turn in the political-economy of India needs serious considerations for keeping our image and record clean as India has a lot of diplomatic and soft-power capital that ought to be used for it's economic and strategic benefits not for clearing out the stains of the domestic front

With all said and done, this begs us to ask what is needed for repairing and reversing the damages. First, a clear and concrete roadmap must be set as to how we should gain our past position on the economic front. At a time when the upheaval has happened and all are scrambling to put their houses in place, India might start with an Aatma-nirbharta initiative, but make no mistake that does not mean that it should become an overarching path to be followed in the future, instead it could be a safety-net for a mid to long-term goal of economic integration with the world economy and more factor market reforms. Certainly, economic self-reliance cannot produce the desired growth unless there is global integration in place for fast growth, and India needs sustainable as well as fast growth. Equal importance should be given to the concomitant defence modernization which cannot wait for too long for a country transitioning into the world of big-power rivalry. Second, unless we put our house in place how could we expect others to do the same. The unusual turn in the political-economy of India needs serious considerations for keeping our image and record clean as India has a lot of diplomatic and soft-power capital that ought to be used for it's economic and strategic benefits not for clearing out the stains of the domestic front. Third, on the diplomatic front, our vision needs to be clear and aligned with our political and economic interests. Instead of looking just in the short-term, a medium to long-term approach must also be placed in order. What might look alluring in the short-run (conforming with our emotions) in geopolitics might be a nightmare in the longer run. With an analysis of cost-incurred and benefit-earned, a path could be carved out for the future roadmap which will work as a torch-bearer for future policies.

 An India which is now on the verge of becoming a rule-maker instead of remaining as a rule-follower, cannot waste time. A multi-pronged approach is the only way forward to deal with the existing problems while preparing for future ones. That needs a mindful and scrupulous approach with the consensus of all stakeholders involved. Can we do it now, when it is needed the most, for manifesting the place to which India belongs?